ABSTRACT
Phase 3 clinical trials and real-world effectiveness studies showed that China's two main inactivated COVID-19 vaccines are very effective against serious illness. In November 2021, an outbreak occurred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region that provided an opportunity to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of these inactivated vaccines against COVID-19 caused by the delta variant. We evaluated VE with a retrospective cohort study of close contacts of infected individuals, using a generalized linear model with binomial distribution and log-link function to estimate risk ratios (RR) and VE. A total of 8842 close contacts were studied. Compared with no vaccination and adjusted for age, presence of comorbidity, and time since last vaccination, full vaccination reduced symptomatic infection by 62%, pneumonia by 64% and severe COVID-19 by 90%; reductions associated with homologous booster doses were 83% for symptomatic infection, 92% for pneumonia and 100% for severe COVID-19. There was no significant decline in two-dose VE for any outcome for up to 325 days following the last dose. There were no differences by vaccine brand. Inactivated vaccines were effective against delta-variant illness, and were highly effective against pneumonia and severe COVID-19; VE was increased by booster doses.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. METHODS: We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. RESULTS: Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.).